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Odds Are, They’ll Know ’08 Winner
By DAVID LEONHARDT

On Election Night a few months ago, Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers gave a small party for neighbors and colleagues at their row house in Center City in Philadelphia. They connected their television to a projector, served beer and pizza and watched the returns come in.

The party went strong until almost midnight, when the results started to seem clear. The Democrats had won the House of Representatives, according to the television networks, but would apparently fall short of capturing the Senate. On MSNBC, Chris Matthews was saying that “it looks good” for Senator George Allen, the incumbent in Virginia, whose victory would have ensured a Republican majority. On Fox News, Michelle Malkin reported that a number of blogs had declared Mr. Allen to be the winner.

So Ms. Stevenson and a couple of the guests said they were going to call it a night. But Mr. Wolfers, who had his laptop open in front of him, suggested that everyone stick around a little longer. In addition to the television, he had been following Intrade.com, a Web site that allows traders to bet on politics and other current events, and he noticed that the posted odds of the Republicans keeping the Senate were suddenly falling.

Those odds are based on the collective opinion of the traders, just as most any market price is, and at 11:50 p.m. they gave the Republicans an 85 percent chance of holding on. At midnight, the odds were down to 65 percent. Around 12:25 a.m., they fell below 50 percent.

A little before 1 a.m. — with the Intrade odds at 37 percent — CNN broadcast a live interview with John Aravosis, a liberal activist. “We pretty much know where we are,” Mr. Aravosis said. “The Dems have the House. Republicans have the Senate. And, you know, I don’t think that’s going to change by morning.”

It did change, of course. Mr. Allen soon conceded, and the Democrats began planning their majority. Mr. Wolfers, an economist at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, sitting in the comfort of his living room, had been a better pundit than most of the professionals on television, thanks to a Web site that is based in Ireland. More

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